臺商赴大陸投資造成臺灣產業空洞化的迷思？

Does Taiwan’s Foreign Investment in China Cause Hollowing-out of Taiwanese Industries?

本研究探討臺商赴大陸投資對產業空洞化，包括失業率、貿易出口總值及製造業勞動生產力等三項驗證指標之動態關係，以闡述臺商赴大陸投資對產業空洞化是否產生影響關係。應用 ARIMA轉移函數之實證結果顯示，臺商赴大陸投資對失業率、貿易出口總值及製造業勞動生產力沒有負面影響，未造成臺灣產業空洞化現象；反而促使製造業勞動生產力提升，產生臺灣產業結構升級之效果。本文不僅驗證臺商赴大陸投資對臺灣失業率、貿易出口總值及製造業勞動生產力的相關效應，並且釐清臺商赴大陸投資與產業空洞化的爭議。

This study explores the dynamic effect of Taiwan’s foreign investment in China on three indicators of hollowing-out of industries including unemployment rate, total exports amount, and manufacturing labor productivity. Empirical results show that Taiwan’s foreign investment in China does not negatively affect unemployment rate, total exports amount, and manufacturing labor productivity, meaning Taiwan’s foreign investment does not cause the hollowing-out of Taiwanese industries. The influx of Taiwanese businessmen’s investment in China in fact leads to a rise in labor productivity of manufacture and the structural upgrade of industries in Taiwan. This study not only explores the effect of Taiwanese businessmen’s investment in China on Taiwan’s unemployment rate, total exports amount, and labor productivity of manufacture, but also clarifies the controversy over the relationship between Taiwanese businessmen’s investment in China and the hollowing-out of industries.