大型船舶進入基隆港之安全評估模式

A Safety Assessing Model for a Large Vessel Sailing into Keelung Harbor

本文係以航海者導向建構大型船舶進入基隆港之安全評估模式，其未來不僅可應用於其他港口亦可作為船舶交通服務的進港預警系統。首先審視船舶進港過程並將安全評估關鍵歸納為「是否具備保持航向能力？」、「艏向與航向之差角是否過大？」及「衝止距是否小於安全距離？」等三問題；繼而，彙集相關經驗公式並依公式概念性、測試性及保守性等三原則整合出一套半經驗暨半理論解析的船舶操縱公式，其貢獻在於僅使用船舶規格明細表與領航資料卡等有限資訊即可計算，並以情境分析確認，再配合基隆港發生的實際案例驗證本文整合公式所建構的安全評估模式。該計算結果顯示，這即時的大型船舶進港之安全評估模式確實可行且符合實際。

This paper proposes a navigator-oriented safety assessing model for a large vessel entering Keelung Harbor. This model can not only be further applied for another port entrance of a large vessel but also be combined into a pre-alert system for vessel traffic service. First of all, the operation process was formed in three key issues, which were 'the keep course ability', 'the deviation between heading and course' and 'the crash stop distance'. A class of semi-analysis and semi-empirical formulation were subsequently adopted in order to meet the criteria of conceptual, testable and conservative propositions. Moreover, the integrated formulation could fulfill the practical circumstance with only limited information in a ship's particular and a pilot card. Scenario analyses in conjunction with case studies were conducted to verify and validate the safety assessing model. The results shown that the real-time model, through several practical ease studies, can spontaneously evaluate the safety in currently available process.