兩岸直航旅客海空運運具選擇探討——以基隆至廈門間航線為例

Modal Choice of Direct Passenger Trips Across Taiwan Strait: An Empirical Case on Keelung-Xiamen Route

自2001 年開放「小三通」，開啟了兩岸通航之利基。「小三通」政策漸漸的滿足了兩岸探親、觀光旅客以及商務人士的需求。與 2001 年相比較，2008 年經由此一管道往返的旅客成長了 40 倍，達 466 萬人次。經由試辦「小三通」的績效，說明了兩岸往返旅客與來臺觀光的需求非常鉅大。在2008 年 11 月臺灣與大陸簽署協議後，正式開啟兩岸「大三通」，不但使兩岸直航不需彎靠他港，亦同時大幅開放大陸人士來臺觀光旅遊，此政策將使兩岸的交流活動更為頻繁。本研究旨在探討目前海運客輪業面臨的兩岸直航新契機後，如何開啟營運之初步探討。其研究目的有二：(1) 探討兩岸客輪之現況與未來發展；(2) 利用二元羅吉特模式說明消費者選擇行為模式。本研究使用敘述性偏好的問卷設計方式進行資料蒐集，利用問卷調查的資料建立消費者效用函數，以瞭解目前旅客對於臺閩兩地海運客輪服務之需求屬性與品質要求，並進而分析影響搭乘之重要關鍵因素。

The operations of off-shore shipping center in 1997 and “mini three links” in 2001 were the cornerstones of cross-strait transport links between Taiwan and China. The “mini three links” service gradually meets the need for cross-strait
visiting relatives, sightseeing tourists and business people. Compared with 2001, the number of passenger trip through this channel increased 40 times with 4.66 million trips in 2008. The tremendous performance of “mini three links” indicates that there is huge demand for cross-strait visit and tourism. Furthermore, the
signing of agreements between Taiwan and mainland China in November 2008 officially announced the beginning of “grand three links”； that would not only allow the operation of direct shipping and flight links between Taiwan and China, but also gave permission to more tourists of China traveling to Taiwan. In the
end, this open policy will enable more interactions between two sides across the
Taiwan Strait. The main purpose of this study is to explore how the passenger shipping operators to start providing services for tourists traveling between Taiwan and China. Two major issues are investigated: (1) the current situation and future development of cross-strait passenger shipping, and (2) using binary logit model to explain consumer's modal choice behavior. In this study, stated preference
questionnaire was utilized for data collection； then, using the survey data to establish a consumer utility function to understand the travelers' demand properties and quality requirements for passenger ferry service between Taiwan and Fujian province of China. It also analyzes the important key factors affecting the modal choice decision.