二手貨櫃船舶價格中船齡與船噸成本之分析

An Analysis of Tonnage Cost and Age Cost in the Secondhand Containership Price

基於考量船舶具異質化商品之特性，本研究利用Hedonic迴歸模式來解析船齡與船噸兩變數，於貨櫃船價中所扮演之角色後，再進以編列相關之「船噸成本指數」與「船齡折舊指數」，以供航商購船之決策參考。雖然本研究之實證結果發現：船噸與船齡對貨櫃船價具顯著影響力，但就觀察研究中所建構各指數之變化可得知：長期而言，船噸與船齡對於船價之影響力相對平穩，因此市場景氣熱絡程度才是影響貨櫃船舶價格的關鍵因素。再者，自2003年起，「船噸成本指數」不僅沒有上漲，反而出現下跌之趨勢，其似乎說明了造船技術進度所產生之效益，似乎已顯著蓋過原料成本上升之趨勢。再者，經由觀察建構之「船齡折舊指數」將可發現：自2003年第一季之後，市場對於船舶折舊價格有越來越低的情形。而此一現象則表示：隨著海運市場景氣之熱絡而致對二手船需求加大，此時船東對船舶船齡之容忍度亦將提高，因此「船齡折舊指數」亦可作為反應海運市場景氣好壞的指標之一。

Due to the heterogeneity of ship attributes, this study has applied the Hedonic regression method to reveal the impacts of ship attributes and market variations on the secondhand containership prices. By separating the values of age and tonnage attributes from the containership prices, two indices about the tonnage cost and age cost have been constructed. Regardless of the significant effect of ship age and tonnage on the containership price, the indices constructed in this paper show that the market variations actually play the key role on determining the containership price due to the relatively stable variations in the tonnage cost and age cost indices. Furthermore, the unexpected downward tread of ship tonnage index from 2003 suggests that the benefit of technical progress in building containerships has outweighed the increasing price of steel. Since the first quarter in 2003, additionally, the steadily decreasing age index indicates that ship owner's endurance for the elder secondhand containership has been increased while the demand of marine transportation has gradually become strong. Accordingly, the index of ship age could be utilized as an indicator for judging the demand situation in the international marine market.