國貨國運政策對臺灣經濟之影響

The Impact Evaluation of Cargo Reservation in Taiwan

為能更深入明確的瞭解國貨國運政策對於國內經濟體系的影響，本文乃採用可計算一般均衡模型 (Computable General Equilibrium Model，CGE Model) 從事模擬，並將模擬結果分為對臺灣總體經濟及對個別產業的影響兩部分說明之。模擬的資料為單國模型資料庫TAIGEM，求解軟體程式為澳洲Monash大學政策研究中心(Centre of Policy Studies) 所研發出來的GEMPACK。模擬結果顯示：國貨國運政策的實施不論是對臺灣總體經濟或是對個別產業的影響效果都非常輕微。根據本文的兩種模擬結果得知，此一國貨國運政策的實施所可能產生資源成本效果影響非常輕微，同時也不存在類關稅效果。

In order to have explicit understanding of the effects of cargo reservation policy in Taiwan, we use Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE Model) to evaluate it. In this paper we have two scenarios: one is supposed that the coal which Taipower Company imported will be shipped by Taiwan national fleet, the other is supposed that Taiwan lifted the ban on direct trade and shipping between Taiwan and Mainland China. We use TAIGEM as the database, and use GEMPACK to solve the model. The results show the impact of cargo reservation is very slight both on the macroeconomic and the microeconomic. The results also show the influence of resource cost effects is very slight, and implicit tariff effect does not exit.