Modeling and Assessing the Quantity Flexibility Contracts for Seasonal Products with High Demand Volatility

建立高需求波動週期性商品數量彈性訂單之評價模型

Quantity flexibility contracts can closely adapt to the market demand for established products and thus are an effective instrument for hedging against highly uncertain demand. However, a crucial issue is how, on the basis of risk sharing, sellers are adequately compensated for bearing the risk of demand uncertainty transferred from buyers when giving buyers option on order quantity. Accordingly, this study aims to properly model and assess the quantity flexibility contracts. To this end, this study first models demand forecast for the given product and then evaluates the expected gain acquired by the buyer from quantity flexibility contract. Subsequently, the assessing model is developed using real options approach. Finally, a numerical example analyses are performed to verify the reasonability and practicability of the proposed assessing model. 數量彈性訂單可緊密地調適順應一現有產品的市場需求量，且為一可規避高度不確定需求的有效工具，然而，一項關鍵問題產生，在風險共擔的基礎上，當給予買方訂購數量選擇權時，應如何合理適當補償賣方其承擔轉移自買方的需求不確定風險。有鑑於此，本研究即試圖準確地建構與評價數量彈性訂單，為了達成此一研究目標，本研究首先建立一既有產品的需求預測模型，接著，評估買方由數量彈性訂單中可獲得的期望利益。繼之而來，本研究乃利用實質選擇權分析法發展出數量彈性訂單評價模型。最後，執行數值實例分析以確證本研究所建議之數量彈性訂單評價模型的有效性與實用性。