貨幣供給對臺灣所得利率物價匯率關聯性之研究

A Study of the Relationship between Money Supply and Income, Interest Rate, Price, and Exchange Rate in Taiwan

本研究主要係利用凱因斯理論及統計方法建立迴歸模型，試圖了解台灣貨幣供給在經濟活動過程是否具顯著影響力。實證分析上，以 IS-LM 模型、AD-AS 模型及開放體系下的對外均衡曲線 BP 為理論基礎分析貨幣供給對台灣利率、匯率、物價、國民所得(GDP)的影響力，採用台灣地區官方統計近三十五年(1974 年~2009 年)每一季的數據資料，利用統計方法 SPSS，實證各項變數間的相關性。實證結果發現，貨幣供給額與物價、國民所得呈正向的變動關係；貨幣供給額與利率、匯率則呈反向的變動關係。在浮動匯率制度下，貨幣供給增加，會直接增加所得，也會透過本國貨幣貶值發揮更大效果。在顯著水準α為 95%信賴區間，貨幣供給額對 GDP、利率、物價、匯率均達到顯著性。準此，實證分析結果與 IS-LM 模型、完整凱因斯模型(AD-AS)及開放體系下浮動匯率理論結果一致。目前正值全球金融海嘯(Financial tsunami)之際，本研究成果可供國內產官學界決策參考。

This study establishes a regression model using Keynesian theory and statistics methodology, in order to determine whether money supply plays a significant role in economic activity. This paper utilizes IS-LM model, AD-AS model and external balance of payment curve BP as the base theory to analyze how money supply affects interest rate, exchange rate, price and national income (GDP) in Taiwan. Taiwan official statistic data in every quarter over the past 35 years (1974-2009) is also obtained and utilized in SPSS statistic methodology, in order to verify the interrelation between the dependant factors. According to the base theory and tested analysis results, there is a positive correlation between money supply and price and national income. Furthermore, there is negative correlation between money supply and interest rate and exchange rate. Under a floating exchange rate, an increased money supply will directly increase income and the effect can be more substantial with domestic currency devaluation. Under the represent statistical significance at α <0.05, money supply has a significant relation with GDP, interest rate, price, and exchange rate. Therefore, the tested analysis result is consistent with the results of the IS-LM model, Complete Keynesian model (AD-AS), and open system floating exchange rate theory. At the present time of regression during the world financial tsunami, this paper can be of some reference to industries, governments, and academics in Taiwan.