金融海嘯與企業財務預警之實證研究——Logit模型之應用

Financial Tsunami and Financial Early-warning Models--Logit Models Application

本研究主要係利用統計科學方法建立財務預警模型(Financial early-warning models)，儘可能在公司尚未發生財務危機前，提前預測出公司可能發生財務危機的機率，達到事前預警作用。實證分析上，嘗試利用 28 個財務比率，K-S tests、M-U tests 與 logit 迴歸模型(Regressions model)比較分析 2006~2008 年全球金融海嘯期間台灣上市櫃公司之價值。研究發現，不同經濟情況影響公司績效主要指標有財務結構、償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力與現金流量指標。每股盈餘 EPS 能有效預測公司之經營績效，適當提高負債比率可提高股東權益報酬 ROE 與公司績效，適度提高股東權益週轉率與資產週轉率可增強公司經營能力。準此，本研究主要焦點意涵在財務風險管理與財務預測。

This paper primarily uses statistical methods to establish financial early-warning models that make it possible to predict in advance the probability of a company experiencing financial distress. In its empirical analysis, this study attempts to use financial ratios , consider 28 variable to analyze 2006-2008 years the public listed data of cupboard company value of Taiwan, and the present study uses the (K-S tests), and (M-U tests) and Logit regressions model. Findings, on different economic situations, influence the achievement result of the company have financial structure, solvency, operating performance, profitability, and cash flow indicators. EPS can predict the achievement result of the company performance. To raise debt ratio can improve ROE and company performance. To raise equity turnover and total assets turnover can increase operating performance. The paper is useful to researchers or practitioners who are focused on financial risk management and financial forecasting.