英文摘要 |
This paper uses cointegration test and error-correction model to test long run Equilibrium among the Taiwan 50 index, index futures and ETF, and explore price leading or lagging indicators. We use daily closing index prices data between July 1, 2003 and June 28, 2005. The findings of this study can be summarized as follows: (1)Taiwan 50 index, index futures and ETF exist a cointegration relationship and long run equilibrium; (2)Estimated coefficients of the vector error correction model suggest that Taiwan 50 index is the best price discovery tool, followed by ETF and futures; (3)The results of Granger causality model indicate that Taiwan 50 index and futures have dual relationship, but Taiwan 50 index and ETF only exist one-direction relationship; (4)Impulse response function reveals that Taiwan 50 index is affected more on new information than that of index futures and ETF. Variance Decomposition further shows that Taiwan 50 index work better in Variance Decomposition. The results of findings may suggest that Taiwan 50 index is a better price leading indicator. |