愛恨ECFA:兩岸貿易與臺灣的階級政治

Cross-Strait Trade and Class Politics in Taiwan

兩岸經貿談判已經引起臺灣政壇的重大爭議與社會衝突。以兩岸經濟合作協議（Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement，簡稱ECFA）為例，本文發現臺灣各階級民眾對海峽兩岸經貿利益分配的認知大不相同。根據中央研究院二○一○年第一次社會意向調查資料庫的分析，我們發現：（1）臺灣各階級民眾之間對ECFA意見分歧，中下階級認為兩岸經貿關係擴大將使貧富差距惡化，因而反對ECFA，資方與管理階層則認為兩岸經貿關係擴大將使經濟成長，因而支持ECFA，（2）對兩岸經貿往來的認知影響了臺灣各階級選民的政治行為，認為兩岸經貿有益於臺灣經濟者－－多數是資方與中產管理階級，傾向國民黨代表他們的階級利益；認為兩岸經貿將導致貧富差距惡化者－－主要是工農與中下階級，傾向民進黨代表他們的階級利益；最近幾次選舉的結果，似乎可以看出臺灣選民的投票行為，已經受到民眾對兩岸貿易與階級利益分配認知的影響。

Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), a cross strait trade agreement has irritated political debates and social discontents in Taiwan. In this article we investigate the class politics of trade and its impact on the political behavior of Taiwanese voters. According to a national survey of 2010, which asked 1,242 Taiwanese adults about their opinions of the trade agreement, we found that social class shaped people's expectation and preference of trade, which influenced their voting behavior. The members of working class and self employed opposed the agreement because they expected that the expending cross-strait trade will deteriorate income inequality. In contrast, the capitalists and managers supported the agreement because they expected that the expending trade with China will improve economic performance of Taiwan. The different expectations of ECFA impacts connected with the voting behavior - the ECFA supporters, mostly capitalists and managers, preferred to sustain the pan-blue camp; while the ECFA opposition, mostly the working class and self-employed, preferred to support the pan-green camp. The results displayed that the c1ass voting and trade coalition matter in the recent elections in Taiwan.