美國與中國的FTA經濟戰略之比較分析

A Critical Comparison of US's and China's FTA Policies as an Economic Strategies

Baldwin(1993)以「骨牌效應」來解釋當前全球的FTA蔓延現象，不僅相當生動，也是貫穿本文的主要理論依據。研究旨趣在於透過「貿易政策」與「經濟手段」的分析視角，比較研究美國跟中國近來的貿易政策思維與如何運用FTA作為經濟戰略，並據以蠡測其對兩岸關係的可能影響。美國是國際經貿規則的制定或倡議者，NAFTA之建立即扮演了推動此波全球FTA洽簽風潮的始作俑者，並正式確立了「雙軌貿易政策」。然而，美國在全球是FTA的「領導者」，在東亞地區則唯恐被「邊緣化」而轉為「防衛性」角色。對中國而言，近年來隨著束亞區域主義興起，加上原先的多邊主義與單邊主義，三大貿易政策乃逐漸到位。值此同時，中國經濟崛起加上經貿體制異常開放，導致周邊國家紛紛成為重要經貿伙伴，配合國際政經情勢等有利因素，在在為中國提供了絕佳的區域舞台。雖然中國在全球是FTA風潮的「追隨者」，但在東亞地區則有轉為「領導者」的態勢。在美台FTA持續沒有進展的情況下，美國之更積極參與東亞FTA賽局，結果可能反而對台灣不利。而本身說具有排他特性的FTA，也已成為中國孤立台灣的新工具。亦即美國與中國的FTA政策，不管有無意圖實質上已形成「邊緣化」台灣的壓力，而此一態勢當會增加台灣對兩岸（經貿）關係正常化的需求。

This paper explores the characteristics of trade policy in US and China and highlights their FTA strategies in terms of economic statecraft, especially their implications for the cross-strait relationships. US is the most important initiator of international trading system. The establishment of NAFTA in 1994 served as the catalyst for the recent regionalism. US is the leader in FTA globally, however, US has left behind the trade arrangements in East Asia, such as ”ASEAN plus one” and ”ASEAN plus three.” In this sense, US plays the defensive role or a follower in East Asia. All three trade policies now are available for China as the surge of regionalism in East Asia (bilateralism, FTA for example), the entrance into WTO in 2001 (multilateralism), and the reform and opening (unilateralism) since 1978 as well as the membership of APEC (concerted unilateralism) in 1991. Meanwhile, the rise of China combined with its high openness in terms of trade and FDI has made China become an important trading partner for neighboring countries. It paves therefore the way for China to become a potential leader in East Asian regionalism, compared with its role as a follower in the global FTA games. Under the threat of exclusion in East Asian regionalism, US has launched more FTAs plans in this area in a more active way. However, Taiwan seems to be ignored, despite US has singed an FTA with Taiwan's competitor South Korea. Moreover, China seems to finds the FTA as the new instrument to isolate Taiwan in international arena. This paper concludes that both FTA policy of US and China might well marginalize Taiwan, whose demand for normalization of cross-strait economic relationships might increase.