高階管理政策研議：系統動力學方法論

A Discussion of Policy Analysis on High-level Management: System Dynamics Approach

系統動力學方法論是一個輔助高階管理政策分析的方法，擅長於處理組織龐大，且具有複雜、緩慢、延滯、累積、及動態等多種典型系統行為特徵的管理系統。在許多高階管理政策的研議過程中，處理問題時必須面對管理系統的複雜度和影響層面，涉及：社會、經濟、和環境等多方領域；甚至是跨越城鄉、區域、或國家等地理區界。而且，管理問題的系統行為表現，往往是長期受到管理系統本身的結構影響所致。因此，欲長期改善管理問題，必須藉由改變管理的系統結構來達成，也就是改變高階管理者解決問題的思考方式。本文認為系統動力學方法論(System Dynamics, SD)擁有系統思考等多種特質，可以輔助改善高階管理的決策思考方式。本文除了介紹系統動力學方法論，將從在環境管理政策研議上的應用，探討適用系統動力學方法論輔助高階管理決策之問題特質、一般管理決策障礙、及該方法論符合高階管理者決策思考之重要特質。並且，以都市空氣污染問題改善之環境管理研究案例，及當今在各個管理領域中的應用概況介紹，說明系統動力學方法論是一種值得推廣和運用在高階管理政策分析之輔助工具。

System Dynamics is a methodology to support policies analysis of top-level management, which is good at dealing with huge organizations that have many classic and systemic characteristics on management actions like complex, slow, delay, accumulative, and dynamic. In discussions of policy analyzing on management, the systematic problems that top-level decision group faces are complex, affected disciplines of society, the economy, and the environment; and even across geographical distributions of urban and rural area, regions, and nations. Furthermore, these systemic behaviors on management problems are mainly influenced by the system structure of long-term management. Therefore, to improve management problems in the long run, we need to change the structures of management system. In other words, we need to help top-level decision group to change the thinking ways for solving problems. This study considers that System Dynamics (SD) has special characteristics like system thinking, which support for changing the thinking ways of policy analyzing on top-level management. This study will introduce SD approach; besides discuss intrinsic environmental problems, general obstacles of policy making, and the SD approach has characteristics that correspond to top-level decision group concerns. Moreover, a case study of a plan to alleviate urban air pollution and introduction of SD study development on management for support of policy analysis and decision making serve as a demonstration of the advantages and significant contributions of the SD approach.