| 英文摘要 |
In recent years, the government has repeatedly experienced the phenomenon that actual tax revenue is significantly higher than the budgetary forecast. Discussion on the accuracy of “tax forecasting” has become the focus of attention from all walks of life. To examine whether tax revenue forecasts correspond to the properties of “good forecasts” in statistics and econometrics, we conduct cross-country comparison, rational tests, comparison of accuracy, and regression analysis, using data collected from budgetary forecasts and realized tax revenues in the period from 1986 to 2017. The results find that the government’s tax forecasting has no accurate trend, and does not satisfy weak rationality, suggesting that the government does not use information effectively. Finally, forecast results from four competing methods are compared to the official forecasts, and the results suggest that the competing estimates are more accurate for most of the taxes. |
