| 英文摘要 |
Introduction: Most researches of impact evaluation related to sport event have been realized and analyzed based on several fields such as economics, financial cost and society. The popular methodology to evaluate the positive or negative impact of sport event is via economic impact analysis and Input-Output analysis. This study focus on how we can use Bayesian theory in indicators of economic impact in sport event. Attempt to segment the economic value of sport event and the value of sport event under globe economy in order to make the value of sport event more precisely. Methods: First, we collect three cases about applying economic impact analysis in sport event. Second, based on Bayesian theory, we use time series methodology (ARIMA) to calculate the weight parameter of each sport event, and then we will recalculate the economic value (expenditure) of each sport event. Results: According to the historical data about GDP of each host city or country, we found the weight parameter of each host city or country and adjusted the economic value of each sport event. Conclusion: More and more important in how to evaluate the economic value of sport event meaningful in recently year, how can we precisely evaluate the net value about sport event exclude the influence of global economy clearly, and provide more precisely, specifically and objectively information of economic impact in sport event for the country or city plan to host the sport event and economic strategy making in the future. |
