以建物暴露度模型評估高齡社會震後避難收容之適宜性

Assessing Suitability of Earthquake Shelters in Aged Society Based on a Building Exposure Model

本研究目的為發展基於建築物暴露度模型之震後避難收容所之適宜性評估方法，避難收容所為地方政府規 劃做為無法依親或找其他地方避難收容者使用，常以社區內的公共設施（如國中小、活動中心或公園等）為主， 過去選址主要從行政區可方便運用為主，較少從高齡者角度考慮可及性與可用性。在高齡社會下，年長者於災 害發生時屬於體能較為脆弱的族群，因此在進行地區避難收容所規劃時，必需考慮高齡者避難撤離的特殊需求， 包括建物住宅到避難收容所的步行距離、收容所的可收容量、收容所物資是否充足等。本研究分析流程，首先 建置建物暴露度模型，主要根據建物的樓地板面積與行動通訊人流數據資料估計建物室內人口數，然後在模擬 地震情境下，利用易損性曲線計算建物的損壞狀態與道路阻斷情況，爾後使用 GIS 路網分析工具，以最短路徑 模擬各建物撤離人口至避難收容所之可及性與可用性。本研究以臺北市萬華區為示範區，此方法亦適用於其他 區域，分析結果可回饋地方政府之地震災害整備和應變作業。

 

The purpose of the study was to develop a method for assessing the suitability of earthquake shelters based on a building exposure model. Previous literature suggests that the elderly are a vulnerable group during disasters. Therefore, when planning shelters, it is necessary to consider the needs of the elderly, including the distance they have to walk from their houses to the shelter, the capacity of the shelter, and the availability of appropriate supplies and food. This research initially constructed a building exposure model to estimate the indoor population of each building based on the floor area size and the data of mobile data traffic. Under the chosen earthquake scenario, this study used the structural vulnerability curves to analyze the extent of structural damage to each building and road. The study then employed road network analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) to consider road blockages and to simulate the availability and accessibility of all shelters based on the shortest path. The Wanhua district of Taipei was selected as a demonstration area to showcase the assessment method, which can be applied to other districts as well. This method can assist local governments in earthquake disaster preparedness and response planning.