基本工資調升對臺灣勞工就業之影響：2013–2018年之實證

The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment in Taiwan: Evidence from 2013–2018

本研究使用「人力運用擬—追蹤調查資料」分析2013至2018年臺灣基本工資調升對低薪勞工就業之影響。結果發現此期間不論是月薪或時薪基本工資之調升，皆顯著降低低薪勞工第二年持續就業之機率；其中，時薪基本工資之調升幅度較大，其對低薪勞工就業之負向影響大於月薪基本工資之影響。月薪基本工資之調升，對青年低薪勞工影響最大，對男性低薪勞工之影響大於女性，對農業低薪勞工之影響大於對工業、服務業低薪勞工。時薪基本工資之負向影響，以高齡勞工最大，青年勞工次之，對女性影響大於男性，對服務業勞工之影響大於對工業與農業勞工之影響。

This study examines the effect of the minimum wage on employment of low-wage employees by using a short pseudo-panel data set of the Manpower Utilization Survey (MUS) in Taiwan during 2013–2018. The results indicate that the numerous hikes in the minimum wage during that period significantly lowered the probabilities of remaining employed for low-wage employees, regardless of whether they were paid by the hour or monthly. The negative effects on the employment of low-wage employees were greater for those with hourly wages than for those with monthly salary. For low-wage employees with monthly payment schemes, raising monthly minimum wages had the largest negative effects on youngers (aged 16–29 years), on males, and on agricultural workers. While, for those with hourly payment schemes, raising hourly minimum wages had the largest negative effects on elders (aged 50 or above), females, and workers in the service sector.