Understanding customers’ discontinuance intention toward curated subscription commerce via the expectation disconfirmation theory

透過期望失驗理論瞭解顧客對策劃式訂閱商務的不持續意圖

策展式訂閱盒服務模式是一種新型的訂閱商業模式，以創新的購物方式滿足消費者的購物體驗需求。本研究根據期望失驗理論，建立模型探討消費者的訂閱期望對策展式訂閱盒的取消訂閱意圖之影響，並提出了三種類型的訂閱期望：功利性結果期望、享樂性結果期望和訂閱價值。這三種類型的期望會影響消費者的不確認和內部心理狀態（後悔和不滿意），進而促使他們取消訂閱。我們還考慮了自我概念清晰度，這是一種關於自我信念透明度的個人特質，影響個人對於取消訂閱意圖的看法。透過蒐集台灣232名兒童書籍訂閱盒的訂閱者數據，使用結構方程模型進行分析。結果顯示，功利性結果期望、享樂性結果期望和訂閱價值都會正向影響不確認。然而，不確認會引起消費者的後悔和不滿意，進而影響消費者取消訂閱的意圖。有趣的是，自我概念清晰度對取消訂閱意圖的影響是不顯著。最後，本研究討論理論和實務上的意涵。

The service model of curated subscription boxes is a new type of subscription commerce that provides an innovative way of shopping to meet consumers’ buying experience. Drawing on the expectancy disconfirmation theory, this research sets up a model to explore the effect of consumers’ subscription outcome expectations on their discontinuance intention of curated subscription boxes and proposes three types of subscription expectations: utilitarian outcome expectation, hedonic outcome expectation, and subscription value. The three types should impact the disconfirmation and internal psychological states (regret and dissatisfaction) of consumers, which in turn motivate them unsubscribe. We also consider whether self-concept clarity, an individual trait regarding transparency of self-beliefs, influences one’s intention toward discontinuing a subscription. With collected data from 232 subscribers of children’s book subscription boxes in Taiwan, we analyze the findings using a structural equation model. The results reveal that utilitarian outcome expectation, hedonic outcome expectation, and subscription value all positively influence disconfirmation. However, disconfirmation leads to consumer regret and dissatisfaction and further impacts consumers’ intention toward discontinuing a subscription. Interestingly, the impact of self-concept clarity on intention to discontinue a subscription is insignificant. Lastly, theoretical and practical implications of this study are discussed.