「中國因素」或是「公民不服從」？從定群追蹤樣本探討太陽花學運之民意

China Factor or Civic Disobedience? Explaining Support for the Sunflower Movement with Panel Data

2014 年三月發生的太陽花學運，史無前例地阻擋可能通過的貿易協定，對於臺灣政治造成非常大的影響。如何解釋民眾支持此一由各種因素交雜的社會運動是一大挑戰。本研究擬先回顧政治參與的理論，然後討論與此次政治參與特別相關的「公民不服從」以及「中國因素」，並且建立多變量模型。為了避免政治態度的內因性，本研究使用網路民調所收集到的定群追蹤樣本。主要發現是納入公民不服從、中國因素並且控制藍綠認同後，中國因素是支持太陽花學運與否的主要因素。本研究發現或許可以推論臺灣公民社會的發展，以及對於非傳統政治參與的研究有所貢獻。

The Sunflower Movement broke out on March 18, 2014 in the LegislativeYuan, and lasted until April 10th. It marked the first time that a protest stoppeda trade agreement that would have been passed by the legislature. It is alsochallenging to explain this movement, which involved many factors. This study,first, reviews theories of political participation and then examines the conceptof civic consciousness and the China factor. We propose a multivariate modelwith these political predispositions. In order to address the endogeneity problem,we use panel data collected by internet surveys. The major finding is that theChina factor is vital, after controlling for civil disobedience and self-identificationwith Pan-blue and Pan-green. This research makes a forecast on the developmentof civil society, and contributes to studies of non-conventional politicalparticipation.