觀光政策對國際旅客訪臺之影響──差異中之差異方法之驗證

The Impact of Tourism Policies on International Tourist Arrivals in Taiwan: Evidence from Difference-in-differences Approach

國際旅遊需求分析一直都是旅遊領域的重要研究議題。然而，大多數的研究卻未將觀光政策的影響納入研究考量中。本研究利用政策分析方法估計各階段之觀光政策實施前後是否對不同訪臺國籍旅客之停留天數和消費金額具不同程度之影響，並使用大規模的逐筆問卷資料探討可能影響國際旅客旅遊決策的因素。實證結果顯示，政策實施後對主要推廣訪臺國籍旅客之停留天數與消費金額大多具有正向政策效果。值得一提的是，進一步比較各觀光政策帶來政策效果，則主要訪臺國籍旅客之停留天數與消費金額之正向政策效果數值會隨著政策時間有逐漸變小的情形。

The study of international tourism demand has always been one of the important issues in the field of tourism. However, most studies do not consider the impact of tourism policies. This study applies a policy evaluation method to estimate the impact of different tourism policies on the length of stay and inbound tourists’ expenditure among different nationalities, Furthermore, this study uses sizable intercept survey data to explore the possible determinants of the tourism decisions for international tourists. The empirical results show that after the implementation of the tourism policy, it has positive policy benefits for visits by the major targeted nationalities’ tourists to Taiwan. However, it is found that the benefits of the tourism policies in terms of the length of stay and inbound tourists’ expenditures gradually decline among major targeted nationalities’ tourists.