台灣產業結構變動與生產力成長之衡量

Industry Structural Change and Productivity Growth Measurement in Taiwan

產業結構變動對生產力成長之影響，是經濟成長文獻之重要研究課題。台灣過去相關之研究多偏重在經濟成長來源分析及生產力之衡量，本文則企圖從產業結構變動之要素跨產業移動角度，來衡量資本及勞動之重分配效果。利用台灣KLEMS資料庫及1981-2015期間之30個產業別資料，我們採用Jorgenson et al. (2007) 之產業別生產力估計模式，來衡量整體經濟及產業別生產力，以及不同時期資本及勞動之要素重分配效果。

研究結果發現：台灣過去35年間之整體經濟生產力成長主要來自各產業自身之生產力成長，而產業結構變動之要素重分配效果則只占整體經濟生產力之16%。但不同時期之重分配效果有差異；資本及勞動之要素重分配效果亦有差異，在2000年以前勞動重分配是主要效果，但在2001年後則以資本重分配效果為主角，勞動重分配在2011年後已為負值。因此，未來政府的產業政策應重視提升部門間勞動移轉之順暢性。研究結果亦發現：1991年後，ICT部門對整體經濟生產力提供了超過50％的貢獻度，其中ICT生產部門貢獻亦超過ICT使用部門。特別在2001年以後，台灣生產力成長之絕大部分貢獻，係來自ICT生產之製造業部門，亦即電子及光學製品業。

 

The impact of industry structural change on productivity growth has been regarded as an important issue in the literature of economic growth. Previous relevant Taiwan studies have emphasized on the source of economic growth analysis and productivity measurement. This paper attempts to measure capital and labor reallocation effects from the perspective of cross industry resource movement due to industry structural change. Utilizing the Taiwan KLEMS Database with 30 industry level input output data in 1981-2015, we adopt Jorgenson et al. (2007) productivity measurement framework to measure the aggregate and industry level productivity growth as well as the capital and labor reallocation effects in different periods. Empirical results indicate that internal productivity growth within industry is the major source of Taiwan’s aggregate productivity growth in 1981-2015, whereas cross industry resource reallocation effect contributes averagely 16% of productivity growth despite the size of such effect may vary in different periods. Among resource reallocation effects, labor reallocation has been the main contributor before the year of 2000, however, after 2001 capital reallocation plays the key role. The labor reallocation effect even became negative after 2011, which implies that a demand for government to promote labor smooth movement industrial policy in the future. Results also find that ICT sectors have contributed more than 50% of aggregated productivity growth of Taiwan after 1991, whereas the contribution from ICT producing sectors is greater than that from ICT using sectors. Particularly, the Electronic and Optical Equipment Industry, an ICT producing manufacturing industry, performed the most contribution to aggregate productivity growth in Taiwan after 2001.