貨幣政策對旅遊需求的門檻效果: 縱橫平滑轉換迴歸模型之應用

Threshold Effects of Monetary Policy on Tourism Demand: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

本文採用縱橫平滑轉換迴歸模型 (panel smooth transition model, PSTR) 評估貨幣政策對旅遊需求決定因素的門檻效應。使用的資料為2002-2018年間入境中國的19個主要國家的時間序列及橫斷面資料。實證結果顯示，在不同的時間、國家與關鍵因素 (國內生產毛額 (GDP)、消費者物價指數 (CPI) 與替代效果) 對中國入境旅遊存在非線性邊際效果。另外，先前的貨幣貶值政策 (相對於美元) 可以非線性地減少GDP和大中華地區入境旅遊替代效應對中國入境旅遊的正面影響，並且非線性地增加CPI對中國入境旅遊的負面影響。明顯的，政府的貨幣政策對中國旅遊需求及其決定因素方面扮演著至關重要的作用。

 

This paper employs the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model to evaluate the threshold effects of monetary policy on inbound tourism and its determinants. The panel dataset includes the nineteen main countries from which there was inbound tourism to China during the 2006–2018 period. The empirical results indicate that the marginal effect of the determinants (gross domestic product (GDP), customer price index (CPI), and the substitution effect) on inbound tourism is nonlinear for different time, country, and transition variables. Moreover, prior currency devaluation policy (against the US dollar) can nonlinearly reduce the positive impact of GDP and the substitution effect in Greater China on inbound tourism and nonlinearly increase the negative effect of CPI on inbound tourism in China. Clearly, the government’s monetary policy plays an important role in moderating China’s tourism demand and its determinants.