對中國強制手段的抗衡與扈從──菲律賓南海仲裁案

Balancing or Bandwagon? The Philippines' South China Sea Arbitration Response to Chinese Hard Approaches in the SCS

2012 年 4 月，中國與菲律賓兩國執法船因漁事糾紛，在黃岩島附近海域對峙，中國以優勢力量成功逼退菲律賓執法船，中國海監船有效控制了黃岩島，但此舉也引起菲律賓極大的震撼，認為中國處理海洋爭端問題，使用了強制手段，逼迫菲律賓讓步。然而，菲律賓政府 面對中國強勢作為，在軍事力量與海上執法能量比不過中國的情況下，只能採取外交與國際法等作為來反制，在外交上，菲律賓尋求美國與日本的協助，在政治與軍事上希望美國積極介入南海事務，期盼日本 協助提升海上執法能量，而日本也積極介入南海事務，使得菲律賓在 外交上有後援；但另一方面，為了確保菲律賓在南海的權益，提出南 海仲裁案，試圖藉由仲裁結果弱化中國在此海域執法的正當性，同時， 當中國決定不願應訴時，菲律賓已取得在宣傳戰與法律戰勝訴的地位。 本文主要探討中國在面對外來挑戰時，通常採取的大國強制手段， 小國該如何抗衡？然而，抗衡結果小國並未能蒙其利，反受其害時， 小國是否採取扈從策略？在從抗衡與扈從的過程中，菲律賓採取的策 略又是什麼？又菲律賓提出的南海仲裁案，是否有辦法抗衡中國強制手段？如無，菲律賓在仲裁案結束後又將採取何種作為？

In April, 2012, a Philippine Navy surveillance plane spotted eight Chinese fishing vessels anchored in the waters of Scarborough shoal. BRP Gregorio del Pilar was sent by the Philippine Navy to survey the vicinity of the shoal, and confirmed the presence of the fishing vessels and their ongoing activities. On April 10, 2012, BRP Gregorio del Pilar came to inspect the catch of the Chinese fishing vessels but were blocked by Chinese maritime surveillance ships (then became part of China Coast Guard in 2013). Since then, tensions have continued between the two countries. However, the Philippines' responded China's hard approaches with diplomatic ways and took steps based on international law. The Philippines seeks for American and Japanese assistance to involve South China Sea issues, on the other hand, the Philippines government decided to adapt arbitration based on United Nations on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) but Chinese government refused to join the arbitration processes. The Philippines won the media and legal warfare on the SCS issues. This article discusses how the small countries respond strong power to challenge or violate their interests. Balancing or bandwagon is difficult for small countries to choose? What's the purpose of the Philippines brought the SCS arbitration, and after that, what's the Philippines' next policy and is the bandwagon useful for improving China- the Philippines Relationship?