中美競逐影響力下的臺灣避險策略

Taiwan’s Hedging Strategy Under the Influence of US-China Competition and Cooperation

當東亞地區面對中國大陸的崛起，與美國的持續影響力時，決策者可以選擇使用避險策略，不在兩大強權之間選邊。自從歐巴馬政府時期的「重返亞太」(Pivot to Asia)，到川普2017年訪問亞洲時的「印度—太平洋」(Indo-Pacific)，充分顯示北京與華盛頓除了經濟上的對峙外，軍事上亦相互較勁。有鑑於此，臺灣蔡英文政府試圖採取「避險」政策。本文主要對避險(hedging)加以討論，並以馬英九與蔡英文時期的政策為例，探討避險的定義與應用。期盼藉由文獻回顧及實證分析，在避險政策上，討論臺灣如何謀求經濟利益與地區安全的雙重保障。 In the case of East Asian strategies towards a rising China and the existing U.S. influences, unless the dominant powers insist, decision makers have enough space hedging without leaning to either side. The “Pivot to Asia” policy by the previous Obama’s administration and Trump’s “Indo-Pacific” policy in 2017 has shown that there is not only economic cooperation between Beijing and Washington, but the con-tinuous military competitions also need our attention between these two great powers. Thus, Tsai Ing-wen’s administration has adopted a more practical position that is best described as “hedging” yields with more flexible options. This paper aims to show the comprehensive stud-ies in decisions by Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen to adopt hedging strategies. The findings demonstrate that Taiwan has contiunuosly man-aged its policy by using hedge over the current regional affairs.