政策不確定性對公司現金持有之影響：以台灣上市公司為例

The Effect of Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Cash Holdings: Evidence from Taiwan

本文探討政策不確定性對台灣上市公司現金持有量的影響，並以總統大選作為政策不確定性的代理變數。實證結果顯示公司傾向在高政策不確定性期間增加現金持有比例，而此段期間公司持有的現金對投資人而言具有較高價值。不同類型的公司中，本文發現政策不確定性與公司現金持有比例及其價值的正向關係在年輕公司、科技業、低營收成長性、以及低財務彈性公司等群組中更為強烈。不同於總統選舉，縣市首長選舉年度中該縣市公司傾向降低現金持有，顯示縣市首長選舉造成的影響有所不同。在各種現金來源中，高政策不確定性期間公司傾向從內部營運所得的管道儲蓄現金。

This study examines the effects of policy uncertainty on the corporate propensity to hold cash. Using the presidential election as a proxy for policy uncertainty, we find that firms increase their cash holding ratios up to 0.7% during election years compared with those of nonelection years. Among the different types of firms, young firms, high-tech firms, and low financial flexibility firms are more likely to increase their cash holdings and receive higher value of cash during election years compared with other firms. Different from the effects of the presidential election, firms tend to decrease their cash holdings during county mayor election years. Overall, our results indicate a positive relationship between policy uncertainty and cash holdings, which is in line with the precautionary motive. In contrast, the findings related to countylevel policy uncertainty are more consistent with the grabbing hand hypothesis.