從定錨捷思法分析古巴飛彈危機中蘇古領導者決策模式

An Anchoring Heuristic Analysis of Soviet and Cuban Leadership Decision-Making During the Cuban Missile Crisis

1962年古巴飛彈危機一直是研究美蘇冷戰史與國際關係史的重點研究對象，此危機也差點讓美蘇兩極體系全面爆發核戰爭，導致世界的毀滅。本文檢視相關文獻發現，對於古巴飛彈危機的研究多以美國和蘇聯為視角之外交信息傳遞、歷史論述、領導者決策邏輯為主要研究主軸，透過社會心理學研究為視角，研究蘇古領導者在古巴飛彈危機中的背後決策模式文獻甚少，為本文選擇此視角研究古巴飛彈危機之動機。本文採用社會心理學之定錨捷思法（Anchoring Heuristic）為理論模型分析古巴飛彈危機中蘇古領導者決策模式，關於研究方法，本文將以文獻分析法進行研究，文獻來源以古巴飛彈危機時已解密之蘇古往來電報、國內外學人期刊論文、聯合國安理會會議紀錄為主。
研究結果發現，蘇古領導者在面臨古巴飛彈危機中，美方態度之決策多少受到定錨捷思法的影響，也就是包含赫魯雪夫認為甘迺迪缺乏經驗和勇氣、卡斯楚因為豬玀灣事件對美國更加敵視等，讓蘇古領導人在一開始面臨美國態度相當強硬，後來才在蘇聯綜合評估下，採用與美談判和安撫古巴的方式雙軌策略來化解此危機。

The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 has been a key research subject in the study of the Cold War history, and international relations between the United States and the Soviet Union. The crisis almost led to a full-scale nuclear war in the bipolar system that may result in the destruction of the world. This study reviews the relevant literature and finds that most of the research on the Cuban Missile Crisis focuses on the diplomatic information transmission, historical discourse, and the decision-making logic of leaders from the perspective of the United States and the Soviet Union, little covers the decision-making model of the Soviet and Cuban leaders from the perspective of social psychology. Therefore, this study opts to explore the crisis from said perspective. This study adopts the anchoring heuristic method in social psychology as the theoretical model to analyze the decision-making of Soviet and Cuban leaders during the crisis. In terms of methodology, the study uses the literature analysis method, where the sources of the literature mainly comprise telegraph correspondences between the Soviet Union and Cuba, papers published in academic journals from home and abroad, and meeting records of the United Nations Security Council.
The results of the study show that decisions of the Soviet and Cuban leaders in the face of the crisis was somewhat influenced by anchoring heuristic, that is, Khrushchev believed that Kennedy lacked experience and courage, while Castro's hostility towards the United States deteriorated due to the Pig Bay incident. These factors caused Soviet and Cuban leaders to adopt a firm stance towards the United States at first. Subsequently, after a comprehensive assessment, the Soviet Union adopted a dual-track approach by negotiating with the United States and pacifying Cuba to resolve the crisis.