習近平時期的台海衝突及其可能解決方案

The Conflict Between China and Taiwan During Xi’s Era and Its Possible Solution

中台衝突是全球地緣政治的重大對抗和關注焦點。統一台灣是習近平「中國夢」的核心議題。烏克蘭戰爭爆發後，威權領導人的不合理野心和脆弱的國際秩序都預示着台灣將成爲下一個烏克蘭。儘管習近平強調台灣是中國的一部分，如有必要會以武力奪取台灣，但台灣仍堅稱其爲事實獨立的民主主權國家，並積極增強軍事實力以準備戰爭、保衛領土。如果衝突各方無法找到解決這場衝突的途徑，台灣很可能成爲第三次世界大戰的根源。運用斯皮特羅模型、衝突螺旋模型以及一些衝突理論，例如身份認同理論、相對剝奪理論、安全困境和結構性暴力理論來審視這場衝突，並探討性別和公民社會在雙方角色中的作用，可以看出中台衝突複雜危險且不斷升級。如果沒有第三方介入，台海戰爭似乎不可避免。而第三方的強制和平或許是解決這一衝突的最終途徑。

The conflict between China and Taiwan is a flash point and a significant geopolitical confrontation in the world. The unification of Taiwan is a crucial issue in Xi’s China Dream. Following the outbreak of the Ukraine war, the unreasonable ambition of autocratic leaders and the fragile international order all indicate that Taiwan will be the next Ukraine. Although Xi emphasizes that Taiwan is part of China and is willing to take Taiwan by force if necessary, Taiwan insists that it is a de facto independent, democratic, and sovereign state. It significantly strengthens its military to defend the territory and prepare for war. Taiwan would likely be the essential root of World War III if all parties and roles could not find a way to resolve this conflict. By examining the conflict through the SPITCEROW model, the Conflict Spiral Model, and various conflict theories, including Identity Theory, Relative Deprivation Theory, Security Dilemma, and Structural Violence Theory, and exploring the roles of gender and civil society on both sides, the conflict between China and Taiwan is found to be complicated, dangerous, and escalating. Without the intervention of third parties, the war in the Taiwan Strait seems inevitable. And third parties’Peace Enforcement could be the final method for resolving this conflict.