房市恐慌購買與缺稀心理：新冠肺炎疫情期間之研究

An Analysis of Impact of the Panic Buying and Perception of Scarcity during COVID-19 Period

本文探討新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情期間市場恐慌情緒與物資急需對房市影響，利用Google trends方法量化一般恐慌、恐慌購買和感知稀缺等情緒，並分析與房價、交易量、銷售天數和議價空間等房市指標的關聯。研究發現恐慌情緒與房價、銷售天數和議價空間存在滯後關聯；恐慌購買情緒與房價和議價空間關係顯著；感知稀缺情緒與房價、銷售天數和議價空間也關係顯著。交易量與情緒需透過非線性門檻模型始能顯現關係。房市變化也會影響民眾情緒，四房市指標均對恐慌、恐慌購買與感知缺稀情緒產生回饋影響。本文支持疫情下恐慌與感知缺稀情緒與房市變化有密切關係。

This paper explores the impact of market panic and urgent demand for supplies during the COVID-19 pandemic on the housing market. Using Google Trends Method, we quantify panic, panic buying, and perceived scarcity sentiments related to COVID-19, analyzing their correlation with housing market indicators such as housing prices, transaction volume, days on the market, and bargaining space. We find that the panic index has a lagged correlation with housing prices, days on the market, and bargaining space; the panic buying index has a significant relationship with housing prices and bargaining space; and the perceived scarcity index has a significant relationship with housing prices, days on the market, and bargaining space. The relationship between transaction volume and these sentiments is weaker and can only be revealed through a nonlinear threshold model. Additionally, changes in the housing market also affect public sentiment, with all four housing market indicators having a feedback effect on panic, panic buying, and perceived scarcity sentiments. The research results support a close relationship between sentiment and the housing market during the COVID-19 pandemic.