氣候變遷下臺灣特有植物阿里山櫻花（Prunus transarisanensis）的地理分布變化

Geographic Range Shifts of Taiwan’s Endemic Plant Species Prunus transarisanensis under Climate Change

氣候變遷正在驅使生物的地理分布發生改變，對暖化敏感的高山植物而言，其影響尤為顯著。阿里山櫻花（Prunus transarisanensis）分布於臺灣高海拔地區，是一種具觀賞價值的特有種櫻花。本研究整合物種調查及環境資料，運用集成生態棲位建模，預測當前和未來氣候情境（共享社會經濟路徑SSP126、SSP370、SSP585，2071-2100年）下，該物種之適宜生育地範圍及其時空分布動態。由所建構的集成模型可發現，冷涼環境與適度降水，是阿里山櫻花適宜生育地的關鍵特徵。未來3種情境下的適宜生育地分布動態分析結果顯示，無論何種情境，氣候變遷都將導致當前適宜生育地，大幅轉為脆弱狀態，即便是低碳排的SSP126情境下，也僅能保存少部分適宜生育地，供作避難所，而在SSP370或SSP585情境下，生育地退化情況將更顯嚴峻，最終可能導致該物種面臨高度滅絕風險。綜合上述推測結果，本研究最後也提出了幾點協助阿里山櫻花調適氣候變遷的建議。

Climate change is driving shifts in the species distribution, and its impact is particularly pronounced on high mountain plants sensitive to warming. Prunus transarisanensis is an endemic species found exclusively in the high-altitude regions of Taiwan, known for its ornamental cherry tree. In this study, species survey records and environmental data were integrated, and ensemble ecological niche modeling was employed to predict the current and future suitable habitats, as well as their spatiotemporal dynamics for P. transarisanensis under various climate scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathways SSP126, SSP370, SSP585, 2071-2100). The model identified that a cool environment and moderate precipitation are key characteristics for suitable habitats of P. transarisanensis. In the analysis of the dynamics of suitable habitat distribution under three future scenarios, it was found that climate change will transform a significant portion of the currently suitable habitats into vulnerable states, regardless of the scenario. Even under the low emission scenario (SSP126), only a small portion of suitable habitat may persist as refugia. However, under the SSP370 or SSP585 scenarios, habitat degradation will be more severe, potentially leading to a high risk of extinction for the species. Based on the above results, this study proposes several suggestions to assist P. transarisanensis to adapt to climate change.