歐盟對中國政策的轉變：從避險走向柔性平衡（2013-2023）

本文主要探討2013至2023年這十年間歐中關係的轉變：2013年雙方建立「全面夥伴關係」十週年，也是中國推動「帶路倡議」發展的年代。歐盟對中政策採用避險的兩手策略，一方面與之交往，一方面防範，期望透過密切的經貿聯繫帶動中國政治的改革；2019年之後歐盟將中國視為合作「夥伴」、經濟「競爭者」與體制「對手」。歐盟開始正視中國經濟擴張背後政治的企圖心。此時歐盟對中政策逐漸走向柔性平衡。雙邊關係呈現出一種排除軍事硬性抗衡，選擇在柔性議題合作或對抗的策略，建構起本文柔性平衡的基本概念。

This article primarily discusses the evolving EU-China policy between 2013 and 2023 and highlights key shifts in its approach: in 2013, the EU-China marked the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the“Comprehensive Partnership,”coinciding with China’s advancement of the“Belt and Road Initiative.”The EU adopted a hedging strategy towards China—economic engagement undertaken in hope that close economic ties would encourage political reforms in China; post-2019, the EU stated viewing China as a cooperation“partner,”an economic“competitor,”and a systemic“rival.”The EU began to recognize the expansionist political program behind China’s economic interests. At this point, the EU’s policy shifted towards a soft balancing. The bilateral relationship revealed a balance that excluded direct military confrontation but opted for cooperation or opposition on soft issues, which constitutes the basic concept of“soft balance”in this context.