邁向創新擴散與產業動態之一般性預測模型：以Bass-Lotka-Volterra模型分析Intel及AMD之競合

Intel及AMD一直為電腦CPU晶片產業最主要的兩家大廠，任何一家所推出的創新產品都將改變這個產業的競爭動態，而這個創新產品的擴散過程也深受產業競爭格局的制約。雖然Tang and Zhang (2005)曾建議以Lotka-Volterra模型來研究Intel與AMD之間的競爭動態，但是他們跟其他產業競爭學者並未認識到Lotka-Volterra模型是以Logistic創新擴散模型為基礎的，也未注意到創新擴散的學者們早已經將Logistic模型拓展至更一般化的Bass模型，並應用到許多產業進行創新擴散的預測。另外一方面，創新擴散的學者也忽略Lotka-Volterra模型的啟示，在討論創新產品的擴散過程時未能充分考慮來自競爭產品（模仿或替代）的影響；或是將Lotka-Volterra模型當作Bass模型的替代方案，僅僅是比較兩者預測績效的異同。爰本研究以Lotka-Volterra模型為基礎，融入產業經濟學中的雙占模型與創新擴散模型的理論，將Bass模型與Lotka-Volterra模型融合在一起，提出Bass-Lotka-Volterra模型。在理論上，Bass-Lotka-Volterra模型是比Lotka-Volterra模型更具一般性的創新擴散與產業動態預測模型。藉著探討Intel與AMD兩家公司的案例，本研究示範如何將這兩種模型應用在個人電腦市場及伺服器市場2012年至2021年間之競爭狀態分析，並就其結果加以比較。

Intel and AMD are the only two major manufacturers in computer CPU industry. The introduction of innovation products from any company would affect the dynamics of industrial competition and, accordingly, the status of industrial competition would also constrain the diffusion of innovation products. However, although Tang and Zhang (2005) had analyzed the competition dynamics between Intel and AMD by Lotka-Volterra model, they and the other industrial economists did not recognize the linkage between Lotka-Volterra model and Logistic model of innovation diffusion, and fail to extend the model into a more general form like Bass model. On the other hand, the scholars of innovation diffusion also neglected the competitors’impacts upon the diffusion process of innovation products, or merely taking Lotka-Volterra model as an alternative option of Bass model and compared their prediction performance. The contribution of this study is to integrate Bass model and Lotka-Volterra model into Bass-Lotka-Volterra model and conduct a comprehensive analysis of the coopetition dynamics between Intel and AMD during 2012-2021. We demonstrate that, comparing to Lotka-Volterra model, Bass-Lotka-Volterra model is a more general prediction model of innovation diffusion and industrial dynamics.