運用混合情境分析法預測2035年台灣半導體產業發展

本研究結合情境分析法與MCDM（多準則決策方法）的MEREC法及DEMATEL法，提出了一種新的「混合情境分析法」，希望能有效改進一般情境分析法預測後衍生多重情境而難以決策的困境。本研究採用此新方法，並從台積電的角度出發，探討台灣半導體產業2035年的發展情境，本研究從初步分析的結果中先找出了技術發展、市場發展及政策支持等三根不確定軸，進而得到了八個情境，其中包括：狂飆的年代、蓄勢待發、多元創新供應者、邁向成熟產業等。隨後再進一步運用MEREC法與DEMATEL法，進行跨情境的分析，期望最後得到的結果可以提供相關主事者決策上的參考。根據本研究的結果來看，無論是在哪一種情境之下，對個案公司來說，技術發展都是最重要的決策因素，市場發展次之，政策支持排第三。本研究的貢獻在於提出了新的混合情境分析法，並初步驗證了此方法對於改進跨情境決策分析上的效益。

This study combines MEREC and DEMATEL method with Scenario analysis to propose a hybrid method that can be used for decision making in cross scenarios. The authors use Taiwan's semiconductor to illustrate the usefulness of the method; they propose 2035 development scenarios from TSMC's perspective and analyze the weights and causal relationships of the uncertainty axes using the multi-criterion decision making as a reference for management decision making. The results of the study identify three axes: technology development, market development, and policy support, and form eight scenarios in total, including: boost era, waiting for booming, diversified innovation suppliers, and moving towards mature industries etc. Finally, according to the results of the MCDM analysis, regardless of the scenarios, technology development is the most important decision-making factor for the case companies, followed by market development and policy support. The initial validation of the methodology enables quantitative decision-making analysis for scenario analysis and expands the decision-making effect of scenario analysis.