台灣風能容量因子估計之比較分析

發展風能項目中容量因子之估計為一關鍵然具有挑戰性的階段。容量因子之估計乃基於風速之特徵與風機之表現，在描述風速時韋伯分配、瑞利分配與核密度估計通常用來預測風速，而線性或二次與三次方多項式的功率曲線則用以描述風機之表現。本文探討估計台灣風能容量因子之最合適的方法，並將結果與真實風場之容量因子進行比較。文中發現風速之分配為雙峰而非單峰分配，因此本文發展了具有混和韋伯分配之時間序列模型並將其納入比較分析中以增加模型準確度。

Estimating the capacity factor is a crucial and challenging phase in developing any wind energy project. The capacity factor is estimated based on both wind speed characteristics and wind turbine performance. Distributions such as Weibull, Rayleigh, and Kernel density estimation are regularly employed to predict wind speed, whereas cubic, polynomial, quadratic, and linear power curves are commonly used to describe wind turbine performance. The study intends to investigate the most appropriate method to estimate wind energy capacity factors in Taiwan. The techniques are evaluated by comparing the capacity factors estimated with the actual capacity factor recorded in the current operating wind farms in Taiwan. However, it appears that the distribution of wind speed in Taiwan is bimodal rather than unimodal. Thus, a mixture of Weibull distributions with a time-series approach is developed and integrated into the comparative analysis.