| 英文摘要 |
This study aims to construct the China Financial Risk Observation Index (CFROI) based on daily data. The research method combines principal component analysis and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model and integrates 37 financial crisis monitoring indicators. The results show that from August 2014 to September 2023, the CFROI showed a transition of increasing leverage, deleveraging, stabilizing leverage, and re-increasing leverage. The main reason is that the Beijing authorities hope to raise asset prices and offset the cost of reform. However, they are also worried about bubbles and choose opportunities to suppress prices. Their policy cycle pushes up financial risks. |
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