非戰爭的攻防：論美國對中國採行的預防性舉措

Non-War Offense and Defense: On Preventive Measures Taken by the United States towards China

對於強權並存的國際格局，權力轉移理論與預防性動機論述的主要關注，在於戰爭的發動。此觀點反映一種以戰爭概念進行解析的框架，即探討國與國之間是否會發生武裝衝突。本研究則以另一個「非戰爭攻防」的分析框架，論述主導強權與崛起國之間在兵戎之外的攻防行動。此框架得以精準指出強權在避免發動戰爭的情況下，透過非戰爭的途徑競逐權力或進行攻防。「非戰爭的攻防」尤其適切形容當今中美商貿往來密切，而地緣政治競爭可能引發緊張局勢的情況。過往權力轉移理論的相關文獻，多是以戰爭為中心進行探討；本研究則為此理論提供更多非戰爭視角的討論，進行主導強權與崛起國之間的動態競爭分析。
本文以美國在2022年施行的晶片與科學法案為例，論述美國對中國採行的非戰爭預防性舉措。該法案禁止受資助企業在中國及其他受關注國家，對相對先進的半導體進行重大擴產。晶片與科學法案的排除中國及其他受關注國家的條款，顯現華盛頓對北京的警戒，應可視為美國對中國崛起的反應。因此，透過多加以關注主導強權面對崛起國時的反應及其可能採取的舉動，權力轉移理論的分析將能更全面解釋當今中美兩強博弈的動態變化。

In the international arena where powerful nations coexist, power transition theory and the discourse on preventive motivation primarily focus on the initiation of war. This perspective reflects an analytical framework based on the concept of war, which is to explore the potential for military conflict between states. This study employs another analytical framework, termed ''non-war offense and defense,'' to investigate offensive and defensive measures between dominant and rising powers that do not involve war. This framework provides a precise indication of the manner in which great powers compete for power or engage in attack or defense through non-military approaches while avoiding military conflicts. ''Non-war offense and defense'' is particularly pertinent in the current context, where China and the United States have extensive trade and commerce relations, and geopolitical rivalries may give rise to underlying tensions. Previous literatures related to power transition theory has primarily focused on war. This research offers more non-war perspective to the discussion of this theory and analyzes the dynamic competition between dominant and rising powers.
This paper discusses the United States' non-war preventive approach towards China, exemplified by the CHIPS and Science Act implemented in 2022. The bill prohibits recipients from materially expanding their relative advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity in China and other countries of concern. The provision of excluding China and other concerning countries from the CHIPS and Science Act indicates Washington's caution towards Beijing, and can be seen as a response by the United States to China's increasing power. Therefore, by paying more attention on the responses and potential actions of the dominant power in the face of a rising power, the analysis of the power transition theory can provide a more comprehensive explanation of the ongoing power dynamics between China and the United States.