恐懼在現實主義的角色──以2022年中共「環臺軍演」為例

The Role of Fear in Realism: The Case of PRC’s Military Drills Around Taiwan in 2022

恐懼(fear)雖然是現實主義的重要概念，但長期受無政府狀態框架的制約，淪為國際結構附屬產物，鮮少用來解釋國家對外行為；謝林(Thomas Schelling)從國家戰略的角度出發，認為恐懼有助國家推動嚇阻戰略，米爾斯海默(John Mearsheimer)則連結恐懼與意圖(intention)，主張國家必須對他國意圖做最壞打算，從而賦予國家藉由塑造恐懼影響國際情勢、從而追求權力最大化的空間。本文嘗試結合兩者，主張嚇阻戰略也可以藉由主動對外塑造恐懼，增加國際情勢的不確定性，迫使對手自我克制，從而達成壓迫對手的目的。例如，中共於2022年在時任美國眾議院議長裴洛西(Nancy Pelosi)訪臺後，對臺進行高強度「環臺軍演」，提高臺海情勢的不確定性，增加臺灣及美國對戰爭的恐懼，迫使臺灣及美國在一定期間內避免刺激中共，暫時調整原本與中共對抗行為。

Although fear is an important concept of realism, it has long been studied under anarchy system, and has become a subsidiary product of the international structure. Fear has rarely been used to explain a state’s behavior. From the perspective of national strategy, Thomas Schelling argues that fear helps states promote deterrence strategy. John Mearsheimer, on the other hand, connects fear with state’s intention. He argues that states should always prepare for the worst about other’s intention, thus states can leverage fear to influence international relations in order to pursue power maximization. Therefore, this study argues that the purpose of the deterrence strategy can also be to actively create fear externally. A state can restrain and oppress its opponents by increasing the uncertainty of the international situation or regional stability. For example, the Chinese military conducted live-fire military drills around Taiwan after U.S House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit in August 2022. The PRC escalated tensions and fueled uncertainty in the Taiwan Strait in order to warn the U.S. and Taiwan to avoid provocation and confrontation with the PRC.