「中」、印人文交流現況、評估與展望

The Current Situation, Assessment, and Prospects of People-to-People Exchanges Between China and India

近年來，「中」、印人文交流先後受到2017年6月的洞朗（Doklam）對峙事件，以及2020年6月的加勒萬河谷（Galwan Valley）衝突，使雙方人文交流迅速降溫，儘管2022年6月21日恢復舉辦「中印人文交流論壇」，然觀察係以「瑜伽」為題，加上採實體與視訊並行方式，與會人數及餐會規格明顯較以往限縮，反映人文交流受到政治關係而產生若干制約與消極的影響。由於人文交流對緩和政治僵局、雙方經貿失衡具調合作用，同時對於推進民眾友好亦具有潛移默化之影響，觀察人文互動與交流情況，對於判定雙方關係與未來發展趨勢具指標意義。作者嘗試藉由分析人文互動歷程，進而歸納在習近平與莫迪兩位國家領導人，對「中」、印人文交流領域互有側重面向，有助於釐清雙方目標與意圖，進而針對「中」、印人文交流薄弱與消極因素，檢視當前在我政府「新南向政策」推動下，臺印交流與合作相對具有優勢與利基點，提供政府強化及補充相關政策延展性，俾在有利的發展環境與國際格局中爭取最佳利益。

In recent years, China-India relations have been affected by the Doklam standoff incident in June 2017 and the Galwan Valley conflict in June 2020, which have rapidly cooled down the people-to-people exchanges between the two countries. Although the“China-India People-to-People Exchange Forum”was held once again on June 21, 2022, in both physical and online formats, its main theme was“Yoga.”In addition, the number of participants and the size of the banquet were significantly smaller than in the past, reflecting that people-to-people exchanges between the two countries have been subject to certain constraints and negative impacts caused by political relations. Since people-to-people exchanges play a coordinating role in easing political deadlocks and bilateral economic and trade imbalances, and have a subtle impact on promoting strategic mutual trust between two countries, understanding the people-to-people interactions and exchanges between China and India is key to assessing their relationship and anticipating future development trends. In this paper, the author attempts to analyze the development of people-topeople interactions between the two countries, summarizing the mutual emphasis on this area by both nations’leaders, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi, hoping to clarify the strategic intentions and goals of both countries. In addition, given the weaknesses and negative factors in people-to-people exchanges between China and India, the author reviews the current exchanges and cooperation between Taiwan and India, promoted by the Taiwanese government’s“New Southbound Policy,”which have had certain advantages and niches, thus providing the government with the flexibility to strengthen and supplement relevant policies in order to strive for the best interests in a favorable development environment and international landscape.