Countering China’s Hub-and-Spoke Bilateralism in Central and Eastern Europe

Countering China’s Hub-and-Spoke Bilateralism in Central and Eastern Europe

Setting the stage for the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s 16+1 framework for cooperation with the Central and Eastern European countries illustrates a sophisticated sectored, layered, and future-oriented hub-and-spoke institution, emanating dozens of institutional bilateral mechanisms. The European Union (EU) and the United States have responded through counter–development initiatives–updated“EU Trans-European Networks”and the“Connecting Europe Facility”, and the US-supported Three Seas Initiative. The following paper explores the establishment and development of the 16+1 framework and the counter initiatives and discusses some of the implications for Central and Eastern Europe. Initially, Beijing succeeded in influencing some countries in the Western Balkans, and Greece and Hungary. However, the counter initiatives succeeded in slowing down and impede China’s progress in terms of membership, financing and trade. Concerns of transparency, corruption, debt dependency, loss of sovereignty, and erosion of European values continue to drive EU and US involvement. However, the role of the US can be perceived as form of transatlantic solidarity or as yet another divisive factor to EU cohesion. The article concludes that although at a slower pace and with less opportunities China’s involvement is likely to continue because 1. Beijing’s initiative enhances the visibility and agency of the countries in the region. 2. China benefits from positive trade balance with the 16+1, increasing influence and the potential for future strategic gains. To counter the competition, in addition to the better trade balance and more than six-fold higher investment, the EU can amplify the multilateral norms and values that differ from the hub-and-spoke bilateral mechanisms and stress long-term benefits.