保健食品網購影響因子與市場開拓預測：Heckman選擇模型

Influence Factors and Markets Development Forecast of Health Food Online Shopping：Heckman Selection Model

2019年底COVID-19疫情爆發以來，結合AIoT帶動保健食品零接觸網路經濟；本文利用Heckman選擇模型(Heckman Selection Model)，探討在2020間線上購物意願、購買次數、平均每次購買支出與整年消費金額之關鍵影響因素，並預測原先沒有網路購物族群之潛在購買力。實證結果顯示：(1)性別及產品別，係影響線上購物與否之主要因素。(2)影響線上購物消費之關鍵因素，包括網路購物行為、網路通路選擇、產品別、產品願付價格與消費者之年齡、職業別、所得高低及已婚與否。(3)本文發現原先沒有網路購物消費群，願意線上購物之潛在市場，分別為平均每年購買1.887次、平均每次消費1,795元、平均3,754元之消費金額，且發現潛在購買力顯著小於現有線上購物消費群。

Since the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak at the end of 2019, the combination of AIoT has driven zero-contact economy with health supplement online shopping networks. This article uses the Heckman Selection Model to analysis the motive of consumer shopping behavior factors in 2020 including the number of purchases made online, average expenditure per purchase, and the overall consumption throughout the year. Also, making a prediction on the potential purchasing power on who have no online shopping experience before. The empirical results show that：(1) the influencing factors affect online shopping behavior by gender and product category. (2) key factors that affect online shopping decision including online shopping behavior, online channel selection, willingness to pay, and by consumer basic information factors such as age, occupation, income, marital status, and product category. (3) This article found that the participants who have not shop online, have the potential buying power to shop online of 1.887 times purchase per year, with an average of shopping amount of $ 1,795, and an average annual total consumption of $ 3,754. We also found that their potential purchasing power was significantly less than existing online shopping consumers group.