美「中」南海競逐「敵手共生」之演進與挑戰

The Evolution and Challenges of“Rival Symbiosis”Between the United States and China in the South China Sea

美國國防部公布《2023年中國軍力報告》，將中國大陸戰略描述為強大民族國家之間的競爭，以及對立意識形態體系的衝突；大陸認為國際體系的結構性變化和對抗性的美國，是雙方戰略競爭加劇的根本原因。近來雙方在南海競逐的摩擦煙硝未曾消退，其互動充滿矛盾與複雜性，本文透過建構主義「敵手共生」模式，深入剖析在大陸國家主席習近平任期內，南海地區所展現的競逐演變，藉由「軍工複合體」、「自群體內在團結」及「投射認同」等研究途徑，本文驗證美「中」南海互動符合「敵手共生」模式，揭櫫雙方並非全面零和博弈，而是一種複雜互動。此模式對理解當前國際關係，尤以大國間具有重要意義，對於整體區域安全和穩定策略之發展殊值觀察與借鏡，以及對我國相關政策制定可多廣度思考。

The U.S. Department of Defense released the “2023 China Military Power Report”, describing China’s strategy as a competition between powerful nationstates and a conflict between opposing ideological systems; China believes that structural changes in the international system and the confrontational United States are fundamental reasons for the intensified strategic competition between the United States and China. The recent frictions and antagonism of the competition between the two sides in the South China Sea have not subsided, and their interactions are full of contradictions and complexities. This article uses the constructivist “adversary symbiosis” model to analyze in-depth the evolution of competition in the South China Sea during the term of Chinese President Xi Jinping. By examining areas such as the “military-industrial complex”, “intra-group unity” and “projected identity”, this article verifies that the interaction between the United States and China in the South China Sea conforms to the “adversary symbiosis” model, revealing that the two sides are not playing a comprehensive zero-sum game, but are engaged in complex interactions. This model is of great significance for understanding current international relations, especially between major powers. It provides valuable observations and references for the development of overall regional security and stability strategies, and can provide broader thinking for Taiwan’s relevant policy formulations.