美中貿易戰後的國際結構：政治兩極化會造成貿易關係兩極化嗎？

International Structure of the Post US-China Trade War: Political Bipolarization Leads to Bipolarization in International Trade?

美中貿易戰宣告了美國與中國在國際政治的競爭局勢正式展開，2019年後的疫情更形加劇了兩國彼此的競爭關係。然而，美中對立下新冷戰的政治兩極化一定會造成國際貿易關係的兩極化嗎？世界各國真的會各自歸隊，在美國與中國之間擇一而處，形成兩極對立的局勢嗎？還是口頭上與行為上有差異，仍然依照國家自身的利益分別和美國和中國進行實質上的往來。本文即探討這個問題，比較美中貿易戰前後，國際貿易局勢的變化到底是趨向兩極化還是非兩極化。本文認為，新冷戰的局勢下，美中對立造成的政治兩極化無法避免，但政治兩極化不等於貿易關係兩極化，本文透過威脅平衡論的觀點，說明在缺乏安全議題誘因與貿易結構的兩大因素影響下，後美中貿易戰時代的國際結構將呈現政治兩極化，但貿易多元化的局面。

The U.S.-China trade war indicates a confrontation between the U.S. and China, and the pandemic problem since 2019 deteriorates the confrontation. However, will political polarization due to the new cold war between the U.S. and China lead to economic polarization? Do countries in the whole world choose their own sides between the U.S. and China, establishing two blocs and competing? Or countries in the whole world behave inconsistently in terms of verbal promises and practical actions. National interest is still their benchmark to have substantial interaction with the U.S. and China accordingly. This paper tries to answer the questions and compares the change in an international structure before and after the post US-China Trade War, whether economic polarization or not. This paper argues that the new cold war will ineluctably lead to political polarization, but political polarization doesn't mean economic polarization. With the balance of threat theory, the manifestation of international structure in the post US-China Trade War will be political polarization but multi-polarization in international trade, when countries except for the U.S. have no security struggle with China and the trade patterns and structures remain the same.