臺灣與「新冷戰」

Taiwan and the“New Cold War”

「新冷戰」的概念近年來在關於中美關係現狀和未來的辯論中備受矚目。在此同時，臺灣海峽的緊張局勢亦引發了美臺關係的廣泛討論。然而至今為止尚未有文獻將上述兩者整合起來，以評估冷戰類比是否適用於發生在臺灣海峽的大國競爭。本文分析了冷戰時期和當前關於臺灣議題的爭論，指出其相同和不同之處。儘管臺灣的意識形態和政權型態發生了巨大變化，但自1949年以來，此一問題的重要面向仍未改變，包括臺灣對被拋棄的憂慮、美國對自陷爭議無法脫身的擔憂、美國對臺灣主權問題的中立立場、美國和臺灣都將臺灣定位為對中華人民共和國意識形態的另類選擇，以及北京妄稱得到臺灣人民的支持。變易之處則包括臺灣已轉型為自由民主國家、選民國家認同的變化、對「一中」的支持下降、臺灣對北京的政治重要性增加、兩岸軍力差距擴大、美中臺的經濟相互依賴，以及臺灣的地緣經濟重要性。藉由比較這些變與不變之處，本文主張當前臺灣海峽的衝突風險較冷戰時期來得高。

The concept of the“new Cold War”has featured prominently in recent debates about the present and future of U.S.-China relations. Meanwhile, tensions in the Taiwan Strait have sparked considerable debate on the United States’relationship with Taiwan. There have not, however, been efforts to integrate these two debates to consider whether or not the Cold War analogy applies to great power competition in the Taiwan Strait. This paper analyzes the dispute over Taiwan in the Cold War era and the present day, highlighting both similarities and differences. Despite the vast changes in ideology and regime type in Taiwan, important aspects of this issue have remained consistent since 1949. Continuities include Taiwan’s concern about abandonment; the United States’concern about entrapment; the United States’neutral position on Taiwan’s sovereignty; the United States and Taiwan both positioning Taiwan as the ideological alternative to the PRC; and Beijing spuriously claiming that it has the support of Taiwan’s people. Discontinuities also exist, including Taiwan’s transition to a liberal democracy; changing national identity among the electorate; the decline in support for One-China; Taiwan’s higher political importance for Beijing; the distribution of capabilities in the Taiwan Strait; economic interde-pendence between the United States, China, and Taiwan; and Taiwan’s geoeconomic importance. Based on a comparison of these continuities and discontinuities, this article argues that the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait is greater now than it was during the Cold War.