前瞻性MD&A揭露對市場參與者盈餘公告反應不足的影響

The Effect of Forward-looking MD&A Disclosures on Market Participants’Reactions to Earnings Surprises

本研究探討前瞻性管理階層討論與分析（以下簡稱MD&A）揭露是否可以幫助投資者和分析師瞭解公告的盈餘對對未來盈餘的影響，進而減緩市場和分析師在公司提交10-Q或10-K文件後對先前公告之盈餘驚奇的不足反應。我們的研究發現，前瞻性MD&A揭露會促使市場和分析師對先前公告的盈餘做出反應。因此，前瞻性MD&A揭露會降低盈餘公告後股票報酬的延遲反應（post-earnings-announcement drift），並降低分析師預測誤差的時間序列相關性。我們還發現，前瞻性MD&A揭露係透過幫助投資人與分析師更準確的預測未來盈餘，從而降低投資人與分析師對盈餘公告的反應不足現象。

This study examines whether forward-looking MD&A disclosures can accelerate investors’and analysts’comprehension of the future implications of previously announced earnings and thus mitigate market and analyst underreactions to previous earnings surprises following the submission of 10-Q/10-K filings. Our findings reveal that forward-looking MD&A disclosures trigger notable market and analyst responses to prior earnings announcements. Consequently, we find that such disclosures are associated with a significant reduction in post-earnings announcement drift and the serial correlation in analyst forecast errors after SEC filings. We also find that the mechanism by which forward-looking MD&A disclosures alleviate market and investor underreactions to prior earnings surprises centers around the fact that more forward-looking MD&A disclosures help inform more accurate expectations of future earnings.