柬埔寨與印尼如何回應中國基礎建設援助：以一帶一路項目為例

Responses of Southeast Asian Nations to China’s Infrastructure Aids: A Comparative Case Study of Cambodia and Indonesia

2008年金融危機後，是東南亞政治經濟發展的轉捩點。中國大幅增加在東亞地區的基礎建設資金與援助，美日等傳統援助強權與中國經濟影響力呈此消彼長態勢，有利於北京使用經濟國策施加影響力。然而，東南亞國家對於中國援助的回應，未必因此趨同。本文將以國際因素與國內因素的互動為分析框架，初步探討造成部分東南亞國家回應北京態度差異的因素，以作為未來研究其他東協國家回應一帶一路，其一般性特徵的參考。
在國際因素中，本文細分成「安全穩定程度」、「依賴中國援助程度」；國內因素的討論則限縮於「受援國當地的社會抵抗」，以檢視東南亞個案國家在回應中國經濟援助時，國內因素多大程度會衝擊國際因素設定的條件。本文選擇柬埔寨、印尼作為比較個案，在類型化「安全穩定程度」、「依賴中國援助程度」後，發現柬埔寨「安全穩定度低、依賴中國援助程度高」，故對於中國援助的回應較給予強烈支持。印尼處於「安全穩定度高、依賴中國援助程度低」的位置，對華援助採有保留支持、傾向經濟避險。而社會抵抗因素只能在國際因素為主條件下，較會衝擊中國援建的效果。這一結果可望有助延伸至其他大國對外援助效果的研究和驗證。

This study aims to investigate why Southeast Asian countries have differing responses to China’s infrastructure assistance. Based on the interface of domestic and international factors, the article contends that international factors are more significant to influence Southeast Asian countries’external policies. In contrast, the authors consider social resistance to China’s foreign assistance as an intervening variable, not a decisive factor to determine varying attitudes of the host countries toward China’s infrastructure assistance.
In this research, the authors characterize the international factors into two sets of security and economic relations with China and other competing great powers in the region, which play a major role in shaping Southeast Asian countries’policy preferences. We further investigate the extent of reliance on China’s foreign assistance by the studied cases. Through the cases of Cambodia and Indonesia, the authors find Cambodia is positioned in low stability of security while China is not its main threat, and over-reliant on China’s aid. As a result, it tends to bandwagon with China and is more supportive of China’s aid programs. However, Indonesia enjoys high stability of security and is, hence, not over-relying on China’s aid. It prefers hedging against China and is less supportive of China’s proposals with stronger reservation.