生育補助對生育率的影響

THE EFFECT OF BABY BONUSES ON FERTILITY: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

生育補助對生育率的影響是衡量生育補助政策時的重要依據。利用1999年至2019年間台灣各縣市生育補助金額的眾多變化，並結合縣市層級生育率的行政資料，本文的估計結果顯示:提高一萬元的生育津貼，育齡婦女總生育率提高約0.1人;針對第二胎的加碼也有促進生育的效果。雖然生育津貼對生育率有正面的效果，但育齡婦女生育率對生育津貼的彈性僅0.052，代表增加10%的生育津貼，育齡婦女總生育率提升約0.52%。

The effect of baby bonuses on fertility is a critical consideration in evaluating fertility subsidy policies. Drawing on the variation in baby bonuses across cities and counties in Taiwan from 1999 to 2019, and integrating it with administrative data on county-level birth rates, our estimates indicate that an increase of 10,000 NTD in baby bonuses results in a rise of 0.1 children in the total fertility rate for childbearing-age women. Additional subsidies for a second child also positively influence birth rates. Although baby bonuses enhance fertility, the elasticity of the fertility rate to the baby bonus stands at a mere 0.052—a 10% increase in the baby bonus results in a roughly 0.52% increase in the total fertility rate for childbearing-age women.