為台灣而戰？列項實驗的探索

Fighting for Taiwan? An Exploration Using List Experiments

本研究透過列項實驗（list experiment）指出傳統民意調查測量方法的侷限性，特別是在攸關民眾上戰場作戰的問題方面，解讀民調數字需審慎考量因「社會期許偏誤」（social desirability bias）造成的高估情形。具體而言，本文結合網路調查與列項實驗，探討社會期許偏誤對民眾上戰場意願的影響程度，並利用針對列項實驗所發展出的多變數迴歸分析（multivariate regression analysis）方法，檢視影響民眾上戰場意願的成因。結果顯示若中共武力犯台，民眾願為台灣而戰的比例約為六成四，該比例相較於國防院民調超過七成民眾願上戰場的比例有明顯下降。藉由比較直接和間接問法，我們估計至少有7%的受訪者傾向隱藏真實態度，回答一個被社會普遍接受的「正確」答案。迴歸模型發現受訪者對國軍防衛能力的評估、美國安全承諾的信賴及對台灣的情感認同等，皆顯著影響其上戰場的意願。在既有的文獻基礎上，本文認為強化自身國防戰力、保持與友盟的合作關係與凝聚台灣共識，是增進台灣民眾防衛意識和抗敵決心的不二法門。

Through a list experiment, this study points out the limitation of public opinion survey. Especially when it comes to the issue related to people’s willingness tofight in a war, interpreting the poll requires careful consideration of overestimation caused by“social desirability bias.”By combing an online survey and list experiments, this paper examines how social desirability bias impacts Taiwanese’s determination to fight. The results show that if China invades Taiwan by force, about 64% are willing to fight for Taiwan. By comparing direct and indirect questions, we estimate that at least 7% of the respondents tend to conceal their true preferences and give a“correct”answer that is generally accepted by society. Our multivariate analyses discover that people’s willingness tofight is affected by a combination of assessments of the capabilities of the R.O.C. armed forces, trust in the U.S. security commitment, and Taiwanese identity. Accordingly, strengthening Taiwan’s defense capabilities, maintaining cooperative relations with allies, and consolidating Taiwan consensus are the only ways to enhance Taiwanese’s defense awareness and determination to resist the enemy.