新冠肺炎疫情前後銀行業獲利能力影響因素比較分析

COVID-19 Pandemic Before and After the Determinants of Profitability of Banking

本文利用縱橫資料迴歸模型探討國內35家銀行於新冠肺炎疫情前、後之股東權益報酬率影響因素，區分衍生性金融商品、資產配置與收入來源等三類指標變數。實證研究發現疫情前、後銀行操作交易目的衍生性金融商品之利率與匯率皆未顯著提升獲利能力；非交易目的之利率與匯率因用於規避風險而非預期會增加銀行獲利能力。疫情前資產配置，僅存放央行及拆借銀行同業顯著正向影響，代表同業資金周轉需求可獲取較高的利息收入；疫情後資產配置透支、貼現及放款受降息利差縮小而負向影響，亦可能因疫情期間違約風險升高，授信趨於保守所致。惟疫情前、後收入來源僅手續費收入皆顯著提升獲利能力，且亦發現疫情後各變數惟手續費收入正成長，表明手續費成為疫情後銀行重要之收入來源。

This study adopts the panel data regression model to analyze the factors affecting ROE (return on equity) of 35 domestic banks before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The study distinguishes independent variables into three types of indicators, including derivative, asset allocation and income sources. The empirical results discovered that domestic banks’operating derivatives based on trading purposes interest-rate and exchange-rate do not significantly improve profitability either before or after the COVID-19 pandemic, bank’s operating nontrading purposes derivatives interest-rate and exchange-rate are used for risk hedging rather than expected to increase bank profitability. Asset allocation before the COVID-19 pandemic only“Due from the central bank and other banks”is positively affected, respond the capital turnover needs of the bank can obtain higher interest income. However, in after the COVID-19 pandemic, only“Discounts and loans”negatively affected by the low narrowed interest rate spread, it may also be due to the increase in the risk of default during the pandemic and the conservative credit extension. The income from service fee charge significantly improved profitability regardless of the COVID-19 pandemic; moreover, the income from service charge works as the only factor increasing banks’ROE, indicating that service charge has become an important source of income for banks after the epidemic.