Taiwan Economy under President Ma's First Two Years in Office

Taiwan Economy under President Ma's First Two Years in Office

本文回顧馬英九總統競選時的經濟政策、近兩年台灣經濟表現以及相應的經濟施政，並試圖透過其從參選時的政見到近期的施政方向，闡述其未來經濟政策的藍圖。首先就馬總統的經濟政策言，本文認為：（1）政見中6-3-3的經濟政策目標並非遙不可及；（2）為了達到這個目標，原先的政策規劃主要有4個面向：12項基本建設、全球連結、產業再造及租稅改革。雖然馬英九總統在競選時對台灣經濟作了這樣的規劃，但其甫一上任即面臨解除油價凍漲、全球金融海嘯、三鹿毒奶粉事件及莫拉克風災等一連串經濟及政治危機事件，因此在任期前兩年中有相當的時間係陷於危機處理的狀態，內外經濟環境劇變致競選時推出之6-3-3的長期目標看似難以達成。其中，全球金融海嘯是所有危機中最大者，為此，本文特別詳述馬政府因應該危機所推出的各項經濟政策。其次，由於從2009年下半年起全球經濟逐漸復甦，加以這段期間的政策得宜，台灣經濟乃逐漸從衰退的泥淖走向復甦。在經濟逐漸復甦下，預期馬政府的經濟政策可望從危機處理模式轉為長期發展模式，因此本文另闡述其經濟施政藍圖。結論為：（1）連結兩岸及布局全球與國內經濟發展是馬政府施政的核心；（2）這一論點的內涵主要在於亞洲生產鏈的發展模式已為亞洲各國經濟發展的主要動力，台灣不能自免於其外；（3）積極的參與國際經濟分工，勢必會造成部分不具備比較生產利益的產業外移，進而產生失業問題。對此，馬政府的因應之道主要有3個層面：產業創新、政策鬆綁以及新興產業，而目前政府所推出的各種經濟政策也正是依循這樣的思維規劃。

This article reviews the proposed economic policies of President Ma Ying-Jeou during his campaign, Taiwan's economic performance in the past two years and the related economic policies that have been carried out. In addition, the future economic blueprint is outlined by linking his campaign pledges and recent policies. Regarding President Ma's economic plans, this article considers (1) the ''6-3-3'' policy target can be possibly reached; (2) to achieve the goal, the original plan included four faucets: 12 basic infrastructure projects, Global connection, Industry restructuring and Tax reform. Though President Ma announced a comprehensive strategy for Taiwan's economy during the campaign, he faced a series of economic and political crises soon after assuming his presidential duties, including removing the gasoline price freeze, eruption of the global financial tsunami, the Sanlu contaminated milk powder incident, and the disaster from Typhoon Morakot. Consequently, most of the first two years of his term centered on crisis management. The global economic developments during that time made the ''6-3-3'' campaign pledge to be seemingly unattainable. Among which, the financial tsunami was the greatest among the crises. Accordingly, this article will elaborate on the economic policy measures that were introduced in coping with the financial crisis. Separately, as the global economy started to recover in the second half of 2009, coupled with the proper measures taken during the recession, the Taiwan economy was able to weather the recession and head towards a path of recovery. Given the gradual recovery in the economy, the economic policies of the Ma administration may shift towards a more long term economic perspective from the previous crisis management mode. Hence, this article will also elaborate on the future economic blueprint. The conclusions are as follows: (1) Connecting both sides of the Strait, Envisioning the world and Internal economic development is the core policy of Ma's administration, (2) within this framework, the Asian supply chain development model has already become the major driving force of economic development in Asian nations, which is a trend Taiwan can not resist, (3) joining the international division of labor aggressively will force industries at a disadvantage to relocate, thus causing unemployment. Under these circumstances, Ma's administration will respond in three different ways: industrial innovation, deregulation, and develop emerging industries. The current economic policies appear to be following such a mindset. This paper is separated into three sections. The first is a description regarding President Ma's campaign pledges; the second addresses the Taiwan economy since Ma took office. For this section, the paper delineates the crisis he encountered when he took office and the measures that were adopted in handling them. Finally, the third portion provides some viewpoints regarding the prospect of Taiwan's economy.