生產力衝擊之動態效果分析

A Dynamics Analysis on the Effects of Productivity Shock

新開放總體經濟模型在探討政策衝擊的效果方面，雖有明顯的貢獻，但其模型頗為複雜，使得分析增添困難性。為了改進新開放總體經濟模型過於複雜的缺失，本文建立一個具有個體基礎、價格粘性與不完全競爭的小國模型，分別探討生產力衝擊對消費、產出、物價水準及匯率的長、短期效果，並且也對生產力衝擊對一國福利的影響進行分析。本文所得到的結論如下：第一、就長期而言，正向的生產力衝擊將使得本國消費與產出水準皆上升；本國物價指數及匯率下降。第二、就短期而言，面對生產力的衝擊，消費、產出及匯率水準會立即跳到長期均衡的水準。第三、正向的生產力衝擊可以提升小國的福利水準。

A standard New Open Economy Macroeconomics model might be more helpful to illustrate the effects of policy shocks. However, the theoretical model was sufficiently complex that analytical intractable. This paper would develop a small open economy model with micro-foundation, price sticky, and monopolistic competition to avoid the weakness with apparent complexity within traditional NOEM model. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts on consumption, output, exchange rate, and the level of welfare of a productivity shock both under the long-run and short-run. The main findings of this paper are as follows. First, a positive productivity shock will increase the consumption and output, but decrease the exchange rate and price index under the long-run. Second, the consumption, price index and exchange rate will jump immediately to its long-run equilibrium with a productivity shock under the short-run. Third, a positive productivity shock will increase the domestic welfare for a small-country case.