溫室氣體減量模式、減量情境、減量成本及其影響評估：TAIGEM-III的應用

由於人類經濟活動所排放的溫室氣體持續增加，溫室效應日趨明顯，聯合國乃於1992年通過「聯合國氣候變化綱要公約(United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, FCCC)」，冀能有效控制「人為溫室氣體」(anthropogenic greenhouse gases)的排放。FCCC在第三次締約國大會(COP3)中通過「京都議定書」(Kyoto Protocol)，首度為附件一國家明訂減量目標，並開放各國批准。由於美國、澳洲等大國遲遲不願批准，致使京都議定書一直無法跨越生效門檻，此一困境在俄羅斯於2004年批准後，終於有了關鍵性的突破，使京都議定書在2005年2月16日生效。

This article explains why Taiwan cannot ignore the potential impacts arising from the Kyoto Protocol, which is already in effect, and differences between the Protocol and other international reduction models. It also considers alternative reduction scenarios and applies the TAIGEM-III model to assess their impacts on Taiwan’s economic growth, employment, and price level, and their costs to the overall economy. The results show that different reduction scenarios and levels of reduction entail different economic impacts and macroeconomic costs. These impacts and costs vary across major energy-consuming industries, with the negative effect on GDP increasing over time. Particularly noteworthy is that the reduction target set by the National Energy Conference in 1998 (reducing emissions in 2020 to their 2000 level), which is essentially the same as that of the Kyoto Protocol, involves an unrealistically heavy cost. The implication is that, when evaluating emission-reduction models and policy instruments, Taiwan should give particular consideration to those with greater flexibility or that accord more closely with its economic and reduction targets, as better able to meet its sustainable development needs.