政體類型和能源價格補貼

Regime Type and Energy Price Subsidy

本文研究政體類型與包括稅前和租稅補貼在內的能源補貼間的關係，並討論這種關係如何被通貨膨脹程度所制約。文中指出不同政權的生存邏輯和不同類型能源補貼的成本，是影響民主和威權政府能源補貼政策差異的重要因素。稅前補貼需要政府編列預算支應部分能源供應的成本，政府不易迴避。因為威權政體優先考量社會穩定，所以在稅前燃料補貼上的支出比民主政體來得多。租稅補貼是指刻意不對能源商品使用的外部性徵收賦稅，處理外部性的重要性沒有滿足人民基本物資價格的穩定來得高，而且提供這些補貼的成本可以留給未來世代，所以兩種政體的政治領導人都較願意提供這些補貼。不過不同政體提供能源補貼的決定還與通貨膨脹程度有關，因為當一個國家的通貨膨脹情形嚴重時，政府提供補貼的意願會跟著降低。稅前補貼涉及能源供應的成本，政府不易迴避，民主政府在必須負擔較多公共財支出的情況下，當通貨膨脹率高，仍會選擇提供較少的稅前補貼。與此相對，租稅補貼是未來世代才會要負擔的成本，政府的財政壓力也小，因此通貨膨脹率高時，民主國家提供的租稅補貼也跟著增加，與威權體制間差異縮小。這些發現，清楚地說明不管通貨膨脹的高低，民主國家相對威權體制提供較少的稅前能源補貼，且在低通貨膨脹程度的情況下，也提供較少的租稅補貼。

This paper examines the relationship between regime type and energy subsidies, including pre-tax and tax subsidies, and discusses how these relationships are mediated by the degree of inflation. The paper suggests that the logic of political survival and the costs of energy subsidies are two of the main factors shaping energy subsidy policies. Pre-tax subsidies require the government to budget for part of the cost, which is not easy for the government to avoid. Since authoritarian regimes prioritize social stability, they spend more on pre-tax fuel subsidies than democracies. Dealing with the externality of energy commodities is less important for political survival than keeping the price of basic goods affordable. Moreover, the costs of providing tax subsidies can be passed on to future generations. Political leaders in both regimes are more willing to provide these subsidies. However, the decision to provide energy subsidies is also related to the level of inflation, as high inflation often preventing a country from reforming subsidies. Democratic governments tend to provide less pre-tax subsidies even when inflation is high because they have to bear more of the public’s financial costs. In contrast, tax subsidies are a cost that will only be borne by future generations, so governments are under less financial pressure to provide them. The subsidy behaviors of the two regimes are similar under this condition. These findings clearly show that, regardless of inflation, democracies provide less pre-tax energy subsidies than authoritarian regimes, and they also provide less tax subsidies given low levels of inflation.